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Creators/Authors contains: "Kim, John B."

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  1. Abstract

    Climate change projections provided by global climate models (GCM) are generally too coarse for local and regional applications. Local and regional climate change impact studies therefore use downscaled datasets. While there are studies that evaluate downscaling methodologies, there is no study comparing the downscaled datasets that are actually distributed and used in climate change impact studies, and there is no guidance for selecting a published downscaled dataset. We compare five widely used statistically downscaled climate change projection datasets that cover the conterminous USA (CONUS): ClimateNA, LOCA, MACAv2-LIVNEH, MACAv2-METDATA, and NEX-DCP30. All of the datasets are derived from CMIP5 GCMs and are publicly distributed. The five datasets generally have good agreement across CONUS for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, although the agreement among the datasets vary greatly depending on the GCM, and there are many localized areas of sharp disagreements. Areas of higher dataset disagreement emerge over time, and their importance relative to differences among GCMs is comparable between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Dataset disagreement displays distinct regional patterns, with greater disagreement in △Tmax and △Tmin in the interior West and in the North, and disagreement in △P in California and the Southeast. LOCA and ClimateNA are often the outlier dataset, while the seasonal timing of ClimateNA is somewhat shifted from the others. To easily identify regional study areas with high disagreement, we generated maps of dataset disagreement aggregated to states, ecoregions, watersheds, and forests. Climate change assessment studies can use the maps to evaluate and select one or more downscaled datasets for their study area.

     
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  2. Abstract

    Summertime low clouds are common in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), but spatiotemporal patterns have not been characterized. We show the first maps of low cloudiness for the western PNW and North Pacific Ocean using a 22‐year satellite‐derived record of monthly mean low cloudiness frequency for May through September and supplemented by airport cloud base height observations. Domain‐wide cloudiness peaks in midsummer and is strongest over the Pacific. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis identified four distinct PNW spatiotemporal modes: oceanic, terrestrial highlands, coastal, and northern coastal. There is a statistically significant trend over the 22‐year record toward reduced low cloudiness in the terrestrial highlands mode, with strongest declines in May and June; however, this decline is not matched in the corresponding airport records. The coastal mode is partly constrained from moving inland by topographic relief and migrates southward in late summer, retaining higher late‐season low cloud frequency than the other areas.

     
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